The UK government has launched a consultation on what it describes as the most significant reform of the UK’s legal migration and settlement system in nearly fifty years. The proposals outline a move toward a contribution-based settlement model, following recent announcements on wider immigration changes, and aim to redefine how long-term residence in the UK is granted.

The consultation explains that settlement will no longer be awarded solely on the basis of time spent in the UK. Applicants will instead be required to demonstrate consistent compliance, economic participation, and meaningful integration.

It also addresses how the transition to the new system would apply to the nearly two million migrants who have arrived in the UK since 2021, while confirming that those with existing settled status would not be affected.

The announcement forms part of a broader effort to reshape the balance of the UK’s immigration framework, with the government emphasising the principles of contribution, integration, and compliance as the basis for future settlement decisions.

The consultation comes at a time when the number of people expected to qualify for settlement or Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) is projected to rise. Forecasts indicate that around 1.6 million individuals could reach eligibility between 2026 and 2030, with annual numbers peaking toward the end of the decade. Much of this increase reflects higher levels of migration in recent years, particularly through the Health and Care visa route.

The government has opened a formal consultation to gather perspectives on proposed reforms to the UK’s settlement framework. The intention is to move toward a model in which long-term residence is linked to sustained contribution, consistent compliance with immigration rules, and evidence of integration. The consultation will run for 12 weeks and is open to individuals, organisations, and stakeholders with an interest in how settlement policy evolves.

A summary of responses, together with accompanying economic and equality impact assessments, will be published after the consultation closes. Certain groups fall outside the scope of this process, including individuals with settled status under the EU Settlement Scheme, those granted status through the Windrush Scheme, and children in care or care leavers. Existing holders of settled status are also unaffected by the proposed changes.

What Is Driving the Government’s Consultation Initiative?

Recent migration patterns have played a central role in shaping the government’s proposed changes to the settlement system. Between 2021 and 2024, the UK saw a notable increase in the number of migrants entering through lower-skilled work routes, particularly via the Health and Care visa. Projections suggest that this single route could account for nearly half of all settlement grants by 2028, reflecting both the volume of entrants and their tendency to remain long-term.

Skilled Migrants

Shifts in work migration have been driven in part by structural changes introduced with the Skilled Worker visa in 2020. Unlike the previous Tier 2 system, which largely restricted applications to graduate-level roles, the Skilled Worker route made it possible for applicants in medium and lower-skilled roles to qualify. As a result, the proportion of visas issued for roles below degree level grew significantly over subsequent years. Adjustments to the Health and Care route further accelerated this trend, especially after care roles were made eligible in 2022 following recommendations from the Migration Advisory Committee. This led to substantial growth in visa grants for roles below RQF Level 6.

A related development has been the rising number of dependants accompanying work migrants. Skilled Worker and Health and Care visa holders brought, on average, a higher number of dependants compared with previous cohorts under the Tier 2 system. Evidence suggests that applicants who arrive with dependants are more likely to progress to settlement, contributing to higher projected settlement volumes for the coming years.

Health and Care Visas

Between 2026 and 2030, more than 460,000 individuals who arrived on Health and Care visas are expected to become eligible for settlement, an entirely new pattern, as this route previously did not lead to settlement before 2025. A further 300,000 individuals are projected to qualify from other Skilled Worker routes, many of whom entered the UK in lower-skilled roles.

Family migration patterns have also influenced projected settlement volumes. The minimum income requirement for sponsoring a partner increased in 2024, following more than a decade without adjustment. Nevertheless, most individuals expected to reach settlement between 2026 and 2030 will have entered the UK before this change took effect, with forecasts suggesting around 280,000 grants from family and dependant routes within this period.

Students

Student migration has seen similar growth. Visa issuances on the Study route more than doubled between 2021 and 2023 compared with pre-2020 levels, accompanied by an increase in dependants. While students are expected to represent a relatively small share of settlement grants in the next five years, recent trends may lead to higher settlement numbers over time. 

The expansion of the Graduate route in 2021 and evidence that many graduates are switching into lower-skilled work roles, particularly in the care sector, suggest that a greater proportion of recent international students may remain in the UK in the long term compared with previous cohorts.

Overall, these findings highlight a substantial shift in the composition and projected scale of future settlement grants. The proposed reforms aim to respond to these patterns by reassessing qualifying periods, contribution requirements, and the broader structure of settlement pathways in the years ahead.

The government is proposing a shift to a more flexible settlement framework built around a time-adjusted model, in which the qualifying period varies depending on the applicant’s compliance, integration, and contribution. Under this approach, settlement would no longer be tied to a fixed duration but instead reflect the individual’s engagement with UK society and immigration requirements.

What Settlement Reforms Is the Government Proposing?

Central to the proposals is the concept of “earned settlement,” which links permanent residence to measurable engagement with UK society and the economy. Instead of a fixed route to settlement, applicants would need to demonstrate ongoing contribution and compliance. The standard qualifying period would rise to ten years, with opportunities for reduced timescales where individuals can evidence significant economic or social contribution.

The “Earned Settlement” Model Explained

The model is structured around four core pillars:

• Character: Applicants would need to meet strengthened standards relating to conduct, criminality, and compliance. These requirements would be mandatory, and the government plans a full review of criminality thresholds across immigration pathways.
• Integration: Individuals would be expected to show active engagement with life in the UK, reflecting a commitment to participating in and understanding British society.
• Contribution: The model would recognise sustained economic participation, ensuring that accelerated routes are reserved for those who can demonstrate meaningful and measurable contribution over time.
• Residence: Continuous lawful residence would remain a key component, though not sufficient on its own to qualify for settlement.

In developing this system, the government will also consider how pathways to settlement and citizenship should apply to children, including those who are vulnerable or who arrive in the UK unaccompanied. The consultation specifically welcomes views on how the model should reflect their circumstances and needs.

Rising Standard Timelines

For the majority of migrants, the proposed default qualifying period would rise from five years to ten years. This extended period is intended to ensure a sustained record of lawful residence, contribution, and integration before a permanent status is granted.

Those recognised as refugees through the asylum system would have a significantly longer starting point of 20 years, though reductions may be possible for individuals who later transition into the proposed work and study pathways. However, the system is designed so that refugees cannot progress to settlement more quickly than individuals in planned migration routes, who are subject to the standard ten-year qualifying period.

In contrast, people arriving through official resettlement programmes would begin their pathway at ten years, reflecting the organised nature of these routes and the consideration given to local capacity when admissions are planned. This creates a shorter and more predictable route to settlement than that available to in-country asylum claimants.

How Integration and Contribution Could Influence Settlement Timelines

The consultation outlines a potential shift toward a system in which applicants who demonstrate strong integration or significant contribution may qualify for a shorter route to settlement. This reflects the Government’s intention to recognise individuals who are making notable social, linguistic, or economic contributions while living in the UK.

Under the proposals, applicants who show a higher level of integration may be able to reduce their qualifying period. This could include, for example, those who have developed advanced English language skills beyond the minimum settlement requirement, or individuals who are actively engaged in work that benefits their local community.

Economic contribution is also a key part of the proposed framework. The Government is seeking views on linking reductions in the qualifying period to income levels, using earnings as an objective indicator of contribution to the UK economy. One proposal is that migrants who surpass certain annual taxable income levels over the three years before applying could qualify for a shorter pathway. These income points are aligned with the higher and additional rate tax bands, reflecting the Government’s view that those with sustained higher earnings are contributing at an elevated level. Importantly, these thresholds would not automatically change if tax bands are updated in future.

The consultation also acknowledges that some sectors particularly essential public services, may not meet the income thresholds despite their importance to the UK. As a result, the Government is considering whether certain skilled roles in areas such as healthcare and education should attract a reduced qualifying period, provided the work is at a recognised skill level.

Community contribution is another factor under review. The Government is exploring whether volunteering should play a role in shortening settlement timelines, recognising the impact that voluntary work has on communities nationwide. While volunteering is distinct from employment and remains a choice undertaken without financial reward, the consultation asks whether consistent voluntary involvement should be recognised within the earned settlement framework.

Some existing routes would continue to benefit from reduced settlement timelines. For example, individuals who enter the UK under certain family or British National (Overseas) categories may still be eligible for settlement after five years, subject to meeting mandatory criteria. Additionally, those on high-skilled entrepreneurial or talent-based routes may continue to access accelerated settlement, reflecting the value of their contribution to the UK’s innovation and skills landscape.

For most other work routes, such as the Skilled Worker route, the standard qualifying period is expected to extend to ten years, unless the applicant meets the criteria for an earned reduction through contribution or integration.

Breakdown of The New Settlement Framework

The earned settlement model is built around four principles, which determine how an applicant’s qualifying period is set and assessed:

1. Standards of Conduct and Suitability
   Applicants must meet clear suitability requirements, including having no criminal convictions, maintaining compliance with immigration laws, and addressing any government debts. The model does not allow for trade-offs, issues relating to conduct cannot be balanced by positive factors elsewhere. A full review of criminality thresholds is planned.
2. Engagement with Life in the UK
   Applicants must show meaningful integration, demonstrated through a B2 English language level and passing the Life in the UK test. These requirements aim to ensure that permanent residents have an appropriate level of language ability and cultural understanding.
3. Economic Participation and Self-Sufficiency
   Individuals must evidence sustained economic activity, including earnings above £12,570 (or an equivalent income) for a period of three to five years, subject to consultation. This aligns with thresholds for income tax and National Insurance, reinforcing the expectation of long-term contribution.
4. Lawful and Continuous Presence
   Continuous residence remains a foundational element of eligibility. However, residence alone will not be sufficient without meeting the other pillars.

Minimum Standards for All Applicants

Every applicant, regardless of route, must satisfy the baseline eligibility criteria linked to the four core principles. These include suitability checks, language and knowledge requirements, and evidence of economic contribution. With the exception of the duration of the earnings requirement, these mandatory criteria are not subject to consultation.

How the Time-Adjusted System Would Operate

The model allows for an applicant’s qualifying period to be reduced or extended, based on specific factors. Only one adjustment from each category would be applied, but multiple categories may be combined. This means an applicant may see both positive and negative adjustments applied to their overall qualifying period.

For example, an applicant who meets a higher language standard but has had a short period of public funds use could have their qualifying period adjusted both downward and upward, with the final period reflecting the combined effect.

Impact of Compliance and Past Behaviour

A key feature of the proposed model is that past non-compliance with immigration laws would directly affect the length of time required before settlement can be granted.

• Overstaying:
  While overstaying already provides grounds for refusal, the proposal includes extending the qualifying period even in cases where the breach does not result in outright refusal. The consultation seeks views on whether the extension should be 5, 10, 15, or 20 years.
• Illegal entry or entry as a visitor:
  These circumstances would also trigger an extended pathway, with potential settlement timelines reaching up to 30 years in the most significant cases.
• Accessing public funds:
  The qualifying period may increase by five or ten years if an applicant has used public funds. This applies even when the use is not considered a breach, such as when NRPF conditions are waived, reflecting the aim of prioritising self-sufficiency.

Proposed Adjustments to Settlement Pathways for Dependants

Both partners and children may progress towards settlement in the UK. Currently, adult dependants of economic migrants are generally able to obtain settlement at the same time as the main applicant, without needing to meet separate criteria. Under the proposed earned settlement framework, this approach is likely to change.

The Home Office is considering a model in which adult dependants would be assessed on their own individual circumstances rather than automatically following the principal applicant’s timeline. This means a partner’s qualifying period could differ from that of the main applicant, potentially being shorter or longer depending on their personal profile, contributions, and compliance. However, dependants would still only be able to settle where the principal applicant is eligible for settlement, they would not have an independent route if the main applicant is refused on mandatory grounds.

Proposals relating to children recognise that some of the core requirements for earned settlement, such as income levels or National Insurance contributions, cannot reasonably be met by those still under 18. The consultation, therefore, raises questions about how these principles should apply to children who reach adulthood during their parents’ qualifying period. The Government is exploring options that would allow children admitted as dependants to continue to be granted settlement alongside their parents, even if they have turned 18, provided this occurs within a defined window.

Overall, the consultation sets out a framework for how long-term residence could be structured. The coming months will allow individuals and organisations to review the proposals, provide feedback, and contribute to the final shape of any future settlement policy.